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Akhil Patel

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About Akhil Patel

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  • About me
    I'm the Editor of a financial newsletter called
    Cycles, Trends and Forecasts which is dedicated to providing investors with unique insights on economic and financial cycles and how to profit from them. I'm a leading expert on property cycles and have published article in MoneyWeek, Estates Gazette and elsewhere. I am also a property developer and investor.
  • Property investment interests
    Property development, planning gain.
  • My skills
    Finance, economics, policy analysis.
  • My goals
    To build a high quality property investment portfolio to take advantage of my insights on the 18 year economic cycle

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  1. Yes, I think he was misquoted or perhaps terms are getting mixed up. He - and I - have consistently called the mid-cycle for around 2019 and the peak around 2026. Nothing has happened to date that suggests that the cycle is down no anything other than repeating.
  2. Actually he said there would not be a crash but that there would be a recession. This is entirely consistent with his forecasts for prior cycles. The current cycle is tracking the ideal model almost like clockwork this time around. It's uncanny. Akhil Patel
  3. Hi Tom, ive just seen this post. I'm sorry I didn't see it earlier. If it's not too late... You can do no better than to read Fred Harrison's Power In the Land or Phil Anderson's Secret life of real estate and banking. If you email me directly I can also send you some material. best wishes, Akhil Patel
  4. It's been interesting to see the discussion on this topic. I am pleased that this is getting traction among investors and people are looking into this further. The graphic you posted above, Ed, ties in with my own analysis - you can clearly see the end of cycle fall in real house prices in the 1970s. I can't remember what Fred (Harrison) said about WW2: my own analysis suggests more simply that the cyclical peak that would have occurred in the late 1930s didn't occur (build up to WW2), nor the one after that, which would have occurred around the middle of the 1950s (post WW2 reconstruc
  5. Hi Patrick, Back to 1955 it contains a graphic of UK real house prices, based on the nominal Nationwide data set which has been inflation adjusted. Unfortunately, I do not have UK house price data further back (i wish I did). I have included information from historical accounts of prior speculative peaks and busts in the 19th and early 20th centuries to help trace the cycle - in the US and UK. In addition, I have provided analysis using US stock market data (which is easier to obtain) back to the 19th century because one of the major effects of the cycle is to induce a major stock mark
  6. Hi guys, There are good questions. Good that you're looking at the evidence before coming to a judgement. In relation to your questions: the 1970s was a period of high consumer price inflation - in real terms, prices corrected by 20% or more on average before rebounding quite strongly. Nominal price indices won't pick this up. Going further back, our historical evidence shows the cycle in operation for over 200 years. Of course there's no guarantee to the future but I'd say the probabilities are there for the cycle to repeat. The problem is that unfortunately none of what you read
  7. Hi Luke, Thanks for the positive feedback. I certainly didn't mean to dismiss Keynes' theories - he is one of the most important and certainly influential economists that has ever lived. What I meant to convey is that the notion of managing an economy in such a way to alleviate the boom and bust cycle - an idea that a whole generation of policymakers took forward as a practical policy idea based on Keynes - can't work, unless you understand the role that land plays in an economy. This is because speculation in land values drives the boom and bust cycle. Keynes didn't put forward, as fa
  8. I authored the recent MoneyWeek cover story Boom Times are Here Again which was the subject of podcast episodes 69 and 71 in the last couple of months. I run an investment advisory company, Ascendant Strategy, and my desire is to help investors take charge of the financial destiny by appling unique insights on the 18 year economic cycle - and other market cycles - to their strategic and investment decisions. For further information and a free e-book - 7 Reasons Why Investors Need to Understand the 18 year cycle please visit www.theascendantstrategy.com/reports/ or email me at info@theasce
  9. Dear Rob and Rob, I listened to this episode with interest. I am the author of 6th June moneyweek article covered by this podcast in which I drew on Fred Harrison's work, but also other authors, including Homer Hoyt, Roy Wenzlick, Fred Foldvary and others. Fred H tends to focus more on land whereas one needs to look at both land and credit. My take on the 18 year cycle is slightly different to Fred's. I am of the view that this next cycle will be the biggest cycle in history. I do not think that Fred thinks that. Ultimately, all of the gains of economic progress - and they will be prod
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