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ed atkinson

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  1. Hi, I have found the spreadsheet on my PC and put it on my shared google Drive.I hope you can all access it. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wVgQDIiHUjA2S1EjfVet4cP97Yqkz0zT/view?usp=sharing
  2. Any recommendations on a good "ground specialist" who operates in the Thames Valley?
  3. There has been concern reported on the property web that Mortgage Express are being overly aggressive, and some say deceitful, over forcing Landlords to pay back their mortgages prematurely. If you have several Mortgage Express loans and wish to sell one property, have a dig about before going ahead. However, here is a good news story. We have several Mortgage Express mortgages and were aware of the dangers. However after a few calls we were promised that sale of one property would not affect the other loans. This is because the LTVs were all below their threshold. The sale just went through and they released all the equity to us with none used to pay back other Mortgage Express mortgages, not even partially. They kept to their word for us. What was significant was that they said they could not write to us and promise their policies would not change between putting the property on the market and completion (when the loan is paid off). We had to trust their spoken reassurance only. BTW, it felt that the mantra 'values double in 10 years' was always going to be something in the past when we jumped into property investing in the early 2000's. But actually this one more than doubled (2.3 times) in 12 years. Maybe the craziness will carry on....?
  4. Hi, I'm the chap who was inspired by the Property Podcast and made a contribution to the show. Well done Rob & Rob for an excellent podcast this week! I will be watching this to add to the discussion as appropriate and please do ask questions. Rob, running the spreadsheet for my own portfolio .... I don't go bankrupt but do make serious losses after forced sales for the 1973 and 1980 recessions. But if I change the "Moderate the interest rates .. " from n to y, it looks pretty rosy: I have to sell in 1979 but by then prices have risen a lot. Selling my 2 low LTV properties early also sorts it out. This outcome is partly due to the selling another LTV property which is going through now. It was partly motivated by the concern to increase my cash reserves as discussed in the podcast. Cheers, Ed
  5. Thanks Rob. I emailed you on 14th. I'm worried you might not have seen it - perhaps it went to your spam filter? Cheers Ed
  6. I looked into this, attempting to read the Fred Harrison book on which it is based, and here is my take on the data - see the graph. I used Wikipedia to give me the official dates for the UK recessions during the period and compared them against RPI-adjusted house prices from Nationwide. 1956 - minor recession real GDP dropped by only 0.3% 1961 - minor recession real GDP dropped by only 0.5% 1973 - major recession dominated by high inflation real GDP dropped by 5.1% 1980 - major recession with pretty high inflation and massive jump in unemployment real GDP dropped by 4.6% 1990 - major recession with moderate inflation and high interest rates related to ERM, real GDP dropped by 2.4% 2008 - major recession with very low interest rates and less impact on employment, real GDP dropped by 7.2%See how a See how all the major recessions were associated with strong house price falls, with the peak the year prior to the recession, except 1973 when they coincided. Harrison says that there is a minor event halfway through the 18 year cycle, he also says the 2nd World War reset the clock. Giving him allowance, let us say the cycles began again from 1956. Thus the cycles were: 1956 to 1973 - 17 years, with the minor event after 5 not 9 years 1973 to 1990 - 17 years, with the minor event after 7 not 9 years and it was NOT minor 1990 to 2008 - 18 years, with the minor event after 10 years if we say it was the dotcom crash, but it didn't feature as a recession or in house prices I am currently doing research into how to survive recessions as property investors. If anyone has stories, insights, questions or other input, please contact me. It is amazing how some quite minor adjustments can have massive impacts on resilience in a recession. I have also noticed that the 2008 recession is not typical and a poor guide to how bad things can be for careless investors. It came with a get-out-of-jail-free card of 0.5% BoE base rates.