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rob-f

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  1. For me the presence of a second wave, and/or discovery of a vaccine are going to be instrumental. Should we hold out long enough, without a second wave, then the economy will have time to recover. A vaccine, which is distributed sufficiently, will obviously cause the market to rebound. Depending on how long this takes, and whether infection numbers have increased, will determine the state of the economy by that point. Either way, I can see huge increases in unemployment. I think this will kick in properly from 1st August when the furlough rules begin to change, with employers having to contribute more and more to the wages over the next couple of months. My feeling by looking at what is happening in Beijing (and the fact that we seem to be returning to normal quite quickly) is that a second wave is only a matter of time. Lets hope a vaccine comes along quickly.
  2. Good stuff, thanks for sharing. Rob
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