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Found 14 results

  1. Hello, Anyone provide any insight into current market conditions in west midlands? Has it slowed? Are people concerned about inflation costs? and scaling back on buying? I image as people can't afford houses these days, the BTL market is still going to boom even more? but property investors want bargains even when the last housing index said average prices went up in the midlands and nationwide. Does anyone see a crash any time soon? with inflation still set to rise further. Thanks to all.
  2. Hello everyone, An economics question... Just an observation but it looks like if the 18 year property cycle is to play out to plan, the reduction in house prices will be driven inflation and the subsequent rise to higher interest rates. I'm interested in everyone's views on whether the next market crash will represent a buying opportunity or it will be a bleak time for property investors? I can't see interest rates shooting up quickly but I (together with everyone else) can see an increase over the long-term to curb inflationary pressures. What does everyone think that the impact will be and how will this play out in terms of prices, rents etc.? Prices may rise in-line with inflation but borrowing costs will increase also wiping out yields, or will prices simply reduce? I have no idea... Thank you in advance. Jon
  3. I’d like to start a conversation about macro-economics and the effects that it might have on property investing. In particular, I’m going to challenge the notion that house prices always go up and highlight that the price rises which have been enjoyed by property investors for the past generation have been largely due to the steady decline in interest rates. Ultimately I’d like to find clarity on the question of whether property investment is still a good idea today and if so then is the same formula that worked previously still the best approach. I’ve tried to research this topic thoroughly but please do disagree with me and offer alternative ideas. What I say relates mostly to buy-to-let (BTL) investments that involve a mortgage. A) Let’s start with some fundamentals: property investors generate profit from two sources: rental income and capital growth. With rental yields where they are today (around 4-6% gross) it typically works out that the rental income is similar to the running cost of the property, and so the investor relies on capital growth to actually make profit. If you knew house prices were going to stay still for the next 30 years, would you still be interesting in BTL? B ) Having established that capital growth is important, let’s examine what causes it. For people to pay more for houses they have to be able to afford to pay more and this generally means one of two things: either they are earning more (wage growth) or they can access cheaper mortgages (interest rates falling). Rob & Rob have often talked about affordability on their podcast and explain how it’s this combination of wage and interest rate that determines what people can pay, not just how much they earn. Interest rates have been falling reasonably steadily now for several decades, meaning that year on year buyers have been able to afford bigger mortgages, pushing up house prices. This is demonstrated by the fact that, over this time, the house price-to-income ratio has increased substantially but the mortgage payment-to-income ratio has been relatively unchanged. A research paper by Victoria Monro of the Bank of England [1] estimated that over the past three decades about half of the housing price growth was due to wage growth and the rest due to falling interest rates. Therefore, if interest rates had not fallen, we would have seen half the price growth over the past three decades. C) So what happens next? Assuming interest rates will not go negative, two things can happen: either rates stay low or rates go up, and surely they will eventually go up. This means that investors will be relying on wage growth alone to push property prices higher and when rates do rise this will have an opposing effect as buyers are faced with higher mortgage payments. If rates slowly rise over the three decades back to the point they were 30 years ago, might we expect the roughly equal contributions of interest rate changes and wage growth to cancel out and house prices stay flat. D) Does this present risk to property investors? I’d really like to hear some opinions from you all. In my eyes there are some significant risks: If I were to purchase a BTL today and house prices stay flat, I might make a small or zero profit on the rental income. But this scenario is likely to occur as a result of interest rate rises, in which case my costs are going to go up and I could find myself in a scenario where I’m making a loss each year on running the property and there are no price rises to bail me out. If rates rise especially fast then house prices could even go down, but I’d be surprised if central banks would allow this to a significant extent. Any thoughts? E) Is there a particular strategy that could be safer? Please do make some suggestions. I for one have been wondering whether the era of capital growth is coming to and end and instead investors should be seeking to maximise rental income rather than capital growth. This would sustain a larger proportion of returns when the growth stops and give a stronger cushion as interest rates rise and increase the mortgage payments. Conclusion I’m proposing that rising interest rates over the coming years are likely to counter the effects of inflation and leave house prices standing still. This means that property investors no longer be able to rely on capital growth as part of their strategy. Furthermore, investors face a risk that their portfolios will no longer be viable with higher mortgage payments. Contrary to popular recommendation, higher income (lower capital growth potential) investments might be a safer bet for the next generation of investors. Ultimately, the central banks have control of the interest rate lever, will their decisions be likely to help or hinder investors? But what about the 18 Year Property Cycle?!? Aren’t we entering the boom phase?? Well I’ll be honest, I’m not sure I believe in the 18 year property cycle... it’s often easy to pick out a pattern when you go looking for one, that doesn’t mean it means anything. Perhaps the 18 year cycle has some validity resulting from human psychology and it certainly seems like people are expecting house prices to go up right now. But I believe there are larger forces at play – these people need to be able to afford it at the end of the day. We might see some more growth still, I’m not predicting a crash; new 95% mortgages could push the market a bit higher still as could wage growth. But otherwise the economic levers that inflate house prices don’t go any further, and eventually will start going back the other way. This won’t necessarily result in prices going down, if central banks decide to avoid that. But it could mean prices staying flat and costs going up, potentially rendering traditional BTL strategies unviable. Please feel free to agree, disagree and generally offer your thoughts on these fundamental issues. [1] Read abstract and see Table 3 from https://www.economic-policy.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/9100_UK-House-Prices-and-Decline-in-Risk-Free-Real-Interest.pdf
  4. Hi, i'm a first time BTL investor. I would really appreciate views on whether this is a good investment. 1 bed flat £150k in Saxton Lane, Leeds LS9. It's off plan development to be completed Q3 2022. Rental yield 6.5%. I'm interested to know if Leeds as a whole is worth while and particularly this area of LS9 which is a 17 min walk to the station. Plan is to keep the property for 5 to 10 years. I've heard growth in Leeds is expected to be 3.2% p.a is this correct?
  5. Hello All, I was listening to one of the property podcasts the other day the episode released on Thursday 9th April 2020 TPP 369. At the end of the episode in hub extra Rob & Rob were talking about doing a personal audit on the information we consume. Now during time like we are facing now most of the stuff we can read can be very doom and gloom. Me personally I am quite a positive person and I am a big believer in what you listen to and read has an affect on your overall mood. The news is a big player in this and can really put a downer on your day, so I like to take everything with a pinch of salt that I read from the news. As of a few weeks ago I have seriously cut down my time spent reading the news as i knew it was doing me no good! So I was wondering what sort of websites or sources of information do you guys use to come to your own conclusion about the property market? As we have also seen in previous podcast episodes where Rob & Rob have proven the new headlines wrong! If you could provide me with your own methods of assessing the market or websites you compare against each other that would be great! Kind regards, Jay
  6. Hello All, I was listening to one of the property podcasts the other day the episode released on Thursday 9th April 2020 TPP 369. At the end of the episode in hub extra Rob & Rob were talking about doing a personal audit on the information we consume. Now during time like we are facing now most of the stuff we can read can be very doom and gloom. Me personally I am quite a positive person and I am a big believer in what you listen to and read has an affect on your overall mood. The news is a big player in this and can really put a downer on your day, so I like to take everything with a pinch of salt that I read from the news. As of a few weeks ago I have seriously cut down my time spent reading the news as i knew it was doing me no good! So I was wondering what sort of websites or sources of information do you guys use to come to your own conclusion about the property market? As we have also seen in previous podcast episodes where Rob & Rob have proven the new headlines wrong! If you could provide me with your own methods of assessing the market or websites you compare against each other that would be great! Kind regards, Jay
  7. Coronavirus with Crude Oil crash strikes in. All major indices are plummeting like in 2008, gold is picking up in value. UK Oil is almost rock bottom. UK goverment is trying to stimulate the economy, again! Should we be worried already? Is recession coming? Is 18-year cycle a MYTH? Major politics and public people are getting infected by the Coronavirus. What one of major politics will die due to Covid-19? Will this cause a panic? Will this whole uncertainty bring UK property market down in post-brexit era? Is there enough toilet paper for us in the world? None was scared about financial crash early 2008, but the tension is building up now and I am a bit worried... You can click on the image to zoom in. each line - green or red - represents 1 month period.
  8. Hi, I am about to purchase my first property (First time buyer) in the location that is perfect for my needs, and due to many developments on going in the area including a new underground station, I expect the value of the property to increase over time. I have just received mortgage offer (2 year fixed rate) and the deal is nearly ready to be sealed, but with all this economic uncertainty, I am unsure if this is the right time to go ahead with the purchase. There are several factors for my hesitation: 1. Due to the market crash, my investments are in it's negatives for the first time. I would need to take money out of this investment in order to pay for the deposit. If I take out money now, I will be losing about 2000 GBP. 2. I was hoping to refurbish the property before I move in. Currently there are no workers who is willing to carry out the work. 3. The Bank of England has cut base interest rate to 0.1%. My mortgage offer has come through just before this change in interest rate. I wonder if there would be better rates available with this new interest rate? On the other hand, my job is secure and I don't expect corona virus to impact me financially too much. Can someone give any informed advice/thoughts on how the property/mortgage market would be like in the next few months? Many thanks,
  9. I ask this question because multi family properties are valued differently from single family therefore I would assume the cycle for multi family is based on a raise in rents ,by the landlord, increasing the value and not a raise in the value or number of comparable properties being sold as it is in the single family market. Basically, I am just wondering what the cycle looks like and is based on for multi family property?
  10. Hello :) Im in a bit of a head-spin, so would really appreciate thoughts and advice. In May this year I had an offer accepted on a new-build 1 bed in Homerton East London. It was a long process of getting my mortgage offer, and its just come through this week (19 oct). I was abroad with my work since May and have just returned to London the same week as the mortgage offer came through. I was expecting to smooth sail straight into the final stages of completion/exchange but after a visit to the property yesterday (the first since it was fully completed) I left feeling very unsure. Background info; after viewing about 40 properties in the market around apr/may 2018 around the 400k price I realised I wasn;t looking to get much for my money. It will be my residential home, and I was looking for a small period flat. I wasn't considering a new build until the agent suggested I come see the new development, and I think I was seduced by the shiny new clean beautifully furnished show-room flat. The idea of moving into a space that needed no work suddenly seemed very appealing. I agreed the asking price and the deal was done. After visiting the flat last week, I left thinking that it wasnt the same quality spec as I recalled, and the actual feel of the new development.... a bit souless. Not anticipating this last minute change of mind, I walked into a local agent (different to what I was purchasing from) and started reeling off a series of questions about the market, had it changed much since may, his thoughts on new build vs period and ex-council. His thoughts summarised; yes the market has softened since May, new builds were most likely being over-priced in the current market and generally speaking the construction of a ex-council/period was far superior to a new-build and they would hold their value much better. I then spend a full day scoping the market on Right Move, and it seems fairly clear - property prices have indeed dropped since May, and with a budget of circa 400K I could get a relatively OK 1 bed victorian or 2 bed ex-council in the same area. It suddenly seems clear that Im paying over market price for the new 1 bed, and would be better off getting an ex-council or period. I havent yet exchanged contracts, but searches, surveys and some legal admin has been done. I expect I will be liable for part of the vendors legal expenses? Questions; - Was I crazy to ever consider a new-build? - Is a low-rise ex-council in desirable East-London (victoria park) the way to go? - Would it be better to go with a smaller period flat in the same location? Or do ex-council and period more or less level each other out in the end? THANK YOU
  11. Is there a way of finding out the property increase rate in a specific area (or even street) year on year, as opposed to the zoopla data, which jumps from 10 to 20 years? I'd be looking to use this in my justification of a low offer where no improvements have been made to a property since it was purchased. TIA
  12. HI All, Really going through a dilemma now, so would appreciate any advice. I've heard good things about this forum from friends, so decided to give this a go. We're currently in the process of buying a house in Maidenhead. To give some context first, the house is in a great location (close to centre, outstanding catchment etc.) and M'head is on the crossrail route with a town centre regeneration due in the next 3 years or so. So all in all, sounds good you'd think! However, Crossrail appreciation has already been baked into prices across the town so prices are quite steep already! So back to my own conundrum. We've got 8% off the asking price for this house, which I thought was quite high in the first place. However, there's another property within the same estate of houses, now being listed at 4% cheaper, and is highly likely to eventually go for even cheaper. This is reflective of the downturn in the market and the inflated prices in Maidenhead not holding up as much anymore. We've already gone back and forth on this property a couple of time to get to the 8% discount, and now we're less than 4 weeks from potential completion. We like the house, and do think it works for us (location + size) for the next 5 to 10 years. The intention is to stay here for that long at least. But we're really worried that we're paying more than we should, and if the other house gets sold for a lot cheaper, then we're going to see our house value fall straightaway once we've moved in! We're talking at least 25k-50k range potentially, depending on the price it gets sold at. The only difference between both houses is that ours has a garage and a slightly longer garden, but the other house has a extra en-suite (not room, just the ensuite). Floor space is pretty comparable. Apologies for the long post, but any advice would be hugely appreciated! Many thanks P
  13. Hello, I want to start researching the UK's market but I'm not sure where to start or where I can find the necessary information. I'm looking for stuff like job growth, population growth, new construction and that's all I have come up with- if you have any suggestions about what else I should know - let me know please. Thank you in advance
  14. We have a flat in Brighton/Hove that has been on the market for sale for 14 weeks. It used to be our home, then it was a rental property, now it's been refurbished for sale and is currently empty. We wanted to sell as all our eggs are in one basket and we thought we could reinvest and purchase some smaller properties to establish a small BTL portfolio. We've had little to no interest (average of 2 views a week, no second viewings, no offers). The price has been reduced to below what it's been valued at (by various different agents) but it's not moving, despite what I hear about the market being in our favour. What are my options? I was thinking of taking a mortgage out on it to release some equity (it's owned outright). Is this feasible? I'm completely new to this and basically wanted to know what I could/should do in this situation in the current market. Any thoughts or stories of similar experiences would be greatly appreciated!
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