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Manchester Market Predictions


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Hello Hubsters, 

I am very active in the Manchester property market. I have my own BTL's there and I also do a fair amount of deal sourcing and deal packaging. In the past month or so I have heard from several estate agents, especially around the city centre, that prices have dropped 2-4% since the New Year. 

I know my opinion about what has caused it... (starts with a B and ends with and endum), but I would love to hear your thoughts... 

Is there a mini dip in the Manchester property market? 

If so what has casued it? 

Will it last?

My kindest regards, 

Nick 

smarterproperty.net

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Hi

I have not had the benefit of speaking to estate agents to form views, although it is clearly interesting to hear what they have been saying to you.  Whilst there is a natural softening of the market at this time of the year, a 2–4% drop in city centre prices would seem quite steep (a significantly larger fall than London?). It also wouldn’t tie in with the supply shortage Manchester has been experiencing and is expected to continue experiencing over the next few years,  and whilst Manchester would be expected to be resilient even in the face of the “B” word, these are interesting times!

It is worth noting that in the latest Hometrack cities index, prices in Manchester rose 0.4% in January 2019 and 1.2% for the three months to the end of January 2019.

One further dynamic particularly relevant to Manchester, is that as the shiny new build stock comes to market, this could affect the existing older stock  which doesn’t have the concierge service, gyms, facilities etc and it could well see a softening in prices there. 

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I think the city centre prices could be softening due to the amount of supply at the moment. If you're looking to buy as an owner or landlord, there's a lot of choice and something nice and shiny, so why buy the same box that was built 20 years ago? Brexit may be impacting on some buyers, but you've also got the S24 effect with a lot of landlords leaving the market, so again, a bit of over supply. 

Going forwards, I think the interesting buildings in the city centre will keep their prices i.e. either the iconic new buildings or the nice Victorian ones, but the identikit boxes will be quickly ignored. Unfortunately, there's a lot of the latter appearing. 

I'm more interested in the suburbs than the centre and no real change in supply there, other than a lot of tenanted or ex-tenanted properties available. What I have noticed is that properties seem to either go within a day or two or they are hanging around on the market for quite a while and often open to good offers. No idea what the Bercow 1604 rule from today means to all this, but at some point Brexit will be over and I expect growth to kick on from that point. Fill your boots!

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  • 1 month later...

Prices seem to be picking up again in Manchester, at least according to the latest Hometrack cities index - up 1.4% in the last 3 months and 0.4% in the last month.

As an aside, a fascinating comment in this article :In 2018, there was more being built in Manchester than there was in Chicago or Los Angeles, according to Deloitte :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2019/04/28/does-manchester-have-takes-surpass-london-uks-tech-hub/

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  • 3 months later...

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