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What Are Your Predictions For The Property Market After The General Election?


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From where I sit the post General Election (GE) property market could be dramatically effected depending on the constituent members of the incoming government.  These comments are not intended to be "party political" but there are already stark differences in various partys' approaches. Those Hub members who are new to the Private Rented Sector need to do their homework to ensure they are making investment decisions on a risk-based assessment.  The GE will not effect the very large numbers looking to rent property, but the outcome could seriously effect the numbers of landlords willing to operate in a potentially increasingly bureaucratic and tenant biased environment.

An outright win by either of the 2 main parties does not look a likely outcome as the political climate currently stands but a week in politics is a long time so 4-5 months of heavyweight campaigning will provide plenty of opportunity for election changing gaffs and blunders.

My view is that it will either be a Labour led coalition with SNP or

Conservative led UKIP + NI parties coalition 

Outside chance of a minority government with an early re-election.

 

If Labour lead a coalition - PRS could change dramatically.  Look to Scottish letting policy and spice it up with extras that Shelter and Generation Rent will lobby hard for. Also cherry-picked aspects of Welsh legislation. Expect:

No fees chargeable to tenant applicants - this will hit letting agents hard and expect landlord fees to rise + rises in rents to cover fees

Extended minimum tenancies - with more restricted powers under Sect 21 & 8 with tenants having greater rights.

Increased & possible nationwide Landlord Licencing.

Rent capping in high rate areas. 

Agents under increased scrutiny and additional licenses to operate.

Labour's mandate will be under pressure depending on how many seats they lose to the SNP in Scotland - a landslide SNP win in Scotland will trigger negotiations for further independence vote which may be positive next time although the dire straights of the oil market could temper these circumstances.

 

Conservative led coalition - likely to be more of the current legislation - the EU in-out vote is likely to dominate proceedings and housing policy is unlikely to get a look in.

 

Minority government will be messy politically but it depends who and for how long the government can cling to power before a new GE is called.

 

2015 is a crucial time for letting,  there will still be tenants looking for property to rent as no magic wand will create a larger public social housing sector but ROI for investors could take a battering in the short term and some may look to invest elsewhere.

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Even those of us with the shortest of memories will be apprehensive about a Labour (majority or coalition) government having its hands on the nation’s money again and would almost certainly see initial market apprehension. I would hope that the modest momentum of the economy’s own recovery could see us through that honeymoon period if Ed Balls can be kept in check.

 

Conversely, another Conservative (majority or coalition) government would undoubtedly continue its programme of austerity in the name of national debt reduction. This might give investors in the market reasons for doubt as the slow steady recovery turtle might win the race – but he’s not particularly attractive when it comes to a quick buck!

 

That said, with 360,000 new first time buyers entering the market in 2014 those looking to rent might have reached a plateau, but those looking to make progress in the housing market might push house prices up.

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  • 3 months later...

How many of you also find the sound bites coming from many of the opposition party leaders very disturbing for the Private Rented Sector?

The clearly stated aim of banning agents charging fees to tenants will cause chaos to the sector as will their 3 year tenancy agreements, rent capping.  Is this a time to reassess our investment strategies or will we be able to ride the storm if the socialist parties take control of the country? 

Has anyone started contingency planning yet?

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Hi Tim

 

I reckon it will be much the same as now after the election. Once everything is put through the social service and it gets vetted into workable ideas, much of the dross will be removed.

 

I personally would like 3-year tenancies as a landlord, it will give me earnings stability and reduce costs of tenant sourcing.

 

But you can expect more of the same if you ask me, everything changes, nothing changes...

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How many of you also find the sound bites coming from many of the opposition party leaders very disturbing for the Private Rented Sector?

The clearly stated aim of banning agents charging fees to tenants will cause chaos to the sector as will their 3 year tenancy agreements, rent capping.  Is this a time to reassess our investment strategies or will we be able to ride the storm if the socialist parties take control of the country? 

Has anyone started contingency planning yet?

 

I actually think that a bit regulation in the letting market will be a good thing - bringing confidence to the consumers could well result in a more efficient market dynamic.

 

On the whole, I'd have to broadly agree with Jason, in that there will be little aggregate effect regardless of which parties are in power.

 

On a personal note, I do find the anti-conservatism and interventionist stance of the SNP seriously troubling and am genuinely astounded that right-minded individuals would entrust those with such policies to govern their nation. What worries me most is that the Nicola Sturgeon's discursive skills and eloquent speaking may be winning a lot of confidence...  :unsure:

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Great topic - this is actually something we're covering on the Property Podcast in a couple of weeks, and it's a feature in the first issue of the Property Hub Magazine too.

 

I'm trying not to share my own political views because the only certainty is that I'll annoy at least some of our audience! But broadly I agree with Tim's analysis, while also agreeing with Jason that the more drastic aspects of all policies are likely to be watered down or quietly abandoned.

 

One thing I've been thinking about though: unless I've missed something, why is no party seriously pushing for regulation of letting agents? Is it just too much of a niche/boring/technical concern to win votes and therefore not worth talking about?

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Didn't mean to come across all 'Murica there. I just don't like the idea of over-interventionism being pushed, I'm a pretty free-market kind of guy.

 

That being said, regulation in the right places is key - I would be a strong supporter of properly regulating letting agents and landlords, as mentioned above I think this could really help the market overall... I think SNP and Plaid Cymru did touch on this, but only with regards to costs, banning agency fees being charged to the tenant was mentioned.

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Luke & Jason

Great to have your interaction and views - I have attached some hyperlinks that may aid your decision process.  I agree that better policed and prosecuted regulation in the right places can help the sector and I am all for processes that would eradicate rogue landlords, agents and tenants.  There is plenty of legislation to cover most needs - there is just little will or desire to force organisations like Trading Standards to prosecute the poor practices and local councils wring their hands at poor housing etc but then put no funding into their environmental health depts to prosecute and enforce housing law.

I would agree that Conservative, Lib Dems and UKIP appear to have a benign view on housing policy and there would be limited changes to the housing market but if the more left of centre parties gain control the sector would face radical changes more in favour of tenants and significantly increased costs to landlords and agents being introduced.  The 3 year tenancy sounds good but look at the small print - this holds the landlord to ransom but the tenants have the better of the get-out clauses.  If tenants are not charged fees this will increase landlord fees and tenants can theoretically make multiple applications at no cost and landlords will foot the bill to reference check the tenant.  

As ever there are some good and bad in each set of policies but I think that you would do well to investigate and make contingency plans as you see fit.

Labour Party Policy

http://www.labour.org.uk/issues/detail/renting

Welsh Housing Act

http://gov.wales/topics/housing-and-regeneration/legislation/housing-act/specific-elements/private-rented-housing/?lang=en

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/anaw/2014/7/contents/enacted

Scottish Housing Act 2014

http://www.cih.org/resources/PDF/Scotland%20Policy%20Pdfs/Housing%20Bill/Housing%20Act%202014%20Briefing%20FINAL.pdf

 

http://generation-rent.com/

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  • 1 year later...

Good time to dust off this thread?

 

After stating there'll be no snap election, looks like Theresa May has changed her mind after Easter (most likely to take advantage of Labor's current form or too much chocolate).

 

Will there be anything for property investors / landlords in the manifestos?

 

Given that the recent budget didn't provide much, perhaps this might provide some extra insight into housing policies? Transport (HS2-3 / Crossrail 2) decisions?

 

Maybe Rob and Rob can look at another podcast as it approaches and more details are provided by each party, similar to the 2015 sessions?

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On 4/18/2017 at 5:08 PM, DerekT said:

Good time to dust off this thread?

 

After stating there'll be no snap election, looks like Theresa May has changed her mind after Easter (most likely to take advantage of Labor's current form or too much chocolate).

 

Will there be anything for property investors / landlords in the manifestos?

 

Given that the recent budget didn't provide much, perhaps this might provide some extra insight into housing policies? Transport (HS2-3 / Crossrail 2) decisions?

 

Maybe Rob and Rob can look at another podcast as it approaches and more details are provided by each party, similar to the 2015 sessions?

 

There is a very passionate thread on this on PT, but like most things that involve politics it started to become slightly childish, which is why I have come onto here.

 

I'm not a follower of politics in any way, I live in my own bubble, I don't watch the news, and 95% of the time I am unaware of the horrors that are going on in the world.  Some people will likely think negative of this, but unfortunately I cannot change what happens in the world, so I do not feel the need to worry about it.

 

There is a lot of concern from reading on the forums about how the next government will affect LL's, and those in property.  You can spend a lot of time worrying, but those who survive are the ones who can adapt, there have been a number of changes, and I am very sceptical that any will be brought in that will make things easier, or save us any money.  I constantly read how small LL's are going to be forced out, but if you go about things the right way, I don't understand why.  Yes it is getting more difficult, there are more rules now and more hurdles that require jumping through, but there will always be ways of earning income from property, you just need to self educate and learn from others.  The industry is simply too vast just for large corporations to run everything.  If I sit here any worry in my chair (and a brew), it won't enable me to renovate my next property, or get a tenant for a future one.

 

In my opinion most politicians "high up" seem to be in it for themselves, I doubt there are many that actually care about most of us.  If the county was ruled using common sense, then it would be a completely different landscape, but there is very little of that.  One minute I read that all of these cuts at the moment are to reduce the national debt, then in the same feed someone posts that the national debt has doubled?  It's like the most boring game of Chinese whispers ever.  No doubt whatever bunch of silly people next take over the government, the world will go on.

 

To be honest, this post is about as useful as a chocolate fireguard, but it does feel very tiring reading posts from people trying to enforce their own political views on others (in other forums), when probably most people are like myself, and would just appreciate a government that actually tried to be positive.  I honestly do not know who to vote for.  There feels as though there is so much pressure not to vote X, because this may result in Y, but Z got the most votes, but X resulted in more seats..?

 

I do not know how I am going to vote, but I do know that on the 9th June I will get up, flick on the news to see who's up next, and then go about with my life.  Will I be better off?  Will I have to work on new ways of achieving my goals? I am not sure, but I will face each hurdle as it is presented to myself, and educate myself to the best of my ability.

 

 

Now for someone to give a more educated commentary, rather than the babblings of myself :D

 

 

 

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www.fmp-investments.com

property@f-m-p.uk

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with a 10% ROI - get in touch

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17 hours ago, DerekT said:

Maybe Rob and Rob can look at another podcast as it approaches and more details are provided by each party, similar to the 2015 sessions?

 

We will do for sure!

 

1 hour ago, darren mcneill said:

I'm not a follower of politics in any way, I live in my own bubble, I don't watch the news, and 95% of the time I am unaware of the horrors that are going on in the world.  Some people will likely think negative of this, but unfortunately I cannot change what happens in the world, so I do not feel the need to worry about it.

 

1 hour ago, darren mcneill said:

I do not know how I am going to vote, but I do know that on the 9th June I will get up, flick on the news to see who's up next, and then go about with my life.  Will I be better off?  Will I have to work on new ways of achieving my goals? I am not sure, but I will face each hurdle as it is presented to myself, and educate myself to the best of my ability.

 

Spot on - I stopped paying any attention to the news in January and I've been happier and more productive ever since! The essence of Stoicism is to distinguish between what you can control and what you can't, and calmly accept everything you can't. I think politics falls squarely under "things you can't control"...not without shaking a lot of hands and kissing a lot of babies at least!

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On 4/19/2017 at 0:21 PM, Paul said:

There will be little difference whoever is 'voted' in, they are all much the same. My plan is to continue ignoring the media and look for opportunities. Prehaps the percieved uncertainty/media hype will provide opportunity?

 

Opportunities are always created :D  

 

As with everything it is survival of the fittest, so while some people back off, make more of an effort to move forward.

 

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

www.fmp-investments.com

property@f-m-p.uk

I am looking for private financing

with a 10% ROI - get in touch

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