Current phase...2021

[frank7]

Hi

Apologies if this has already been asked many times in the forum somewhere.

I don't know whether Covid has messed with the 18 year cycle a little (or a lot, or at all) but I was wondering if anyone knows which part of the 18 year cycle we might be in right now? 

If I count from the 2008 financial crash then wouldn't we be in the second half of the explosive phase.

  ''Winners curse''?

Many thanks.

[nicholas_b]

Hi Frank, 

There's a few posts about this subject circa March to June last year (drawing comparisons to the last crash)

The truth is, nobody truly knows. With the cycle the crash was between 08 and 10 so you could count 18 years from then and work back and I guess it would be the end of the mid cycle wobble, moving in to the early stages of boom.

The difference is, usually there isnt this amount of quantitative easing or growth and job uncertainty at the start of a boom, or the cheapness of credit. It's like the measures and circs that follow the end of a boom have been brought forward.

For me its supply and demand. Your search area will never fall naturally in to the averages... make a decision around supply and demand and you wont go too far wrong

Best of luck mate

[ollied]

It would seem like COVID has disrupted the cycle. There are mixed signals from different stages. It is difficult to get a mortgage at the moment, minimum deposit of 20% appears to be the normal now. Yet house prices are high.

https://www.propertyreporter.co.uk/property/uk-house-prices-at-record-level-for-fifth-successive-mon.html

My guess would be the explosive stage? When stamp duty comes back we might see the a drop in the house prices.

[jamie_f]

Hi there, I'm new to all of this. I've been in the research stage for far too long and now about to take the plunge.

In various conversations I've had with investors far more experienced than me it was impressed on me that the 18 year cycle is not just a national cycle. It can be regional as well with different regions, town or cities being at different stages of the cycle at any point in time. Mini property cycles if you will. I guess this could manifest as hotspots moving around the region/ country.

I don't have and hard data to back this up and will be doing more research myself, but it will be interesting if there is any credence to this.

Maybe someone on here may know more. I'd be interested in others opinions.

I just thought I'd throw that out there.

Good luck on your endeavours.