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The inflation, Covid, Brexit and everything else.


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Ladies and gentlemen, I believe this is on everybody's mind at the moment.  

I am sure there are some seasoned investors that have seen it all before out there (or here). I am not one of them. I was only at the beginning of my employment/career when the last recession hit. It seems to me there are very many factors that are at play at the moment. Each one of them has the potential to seriously shake the market. All of them combined..
I would be quite happy to predict the impact of each one's of them but this mix is rather confusing. I do not even know where to begin.

Inflation? Super inflation? Stagflaction? Depression? Recession? 

And most importantly, how the future will affect the housing market? 

What do we think?

I look forward to seeing your ideas, views, opinions.

Regards
Greg 
 

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regardless of what happens in the market or economy people still need somewhere to live - that is why BTL is so resilient. When things get tight financially the easiest thing to do is to stay put and that what a lot of tenants did in the pandemic.

Lots of other people moved and, according to some reports, are now regretting it. 

Bottom line - have a plan with good fundamentals, ignore the noise and keep on keeping on! See downturns as opportunities not hurdles and hopefully we will all come out on the other side. :) 

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57 minutes ago, julia urquhart said:

regardless of what happens in the market or economy people still need somewhere to live - that is why BTL is so resilient. When things get tight financially the easiest thing to do is to stay put and that what a lot of tenants did in the pandemic.

Lots of other people moved and, according to some reports, are now regretting it. 

Bottom line - have a plan with good fundamentals, ignore the noise and keep on keeping on! See downturns as opportunities not hurdles and hopefully we will all come out on the other side. :) 

I agree with the overall sentiment here. I believe the best deals are to be had in the turbulent times. Good fundamentals always help. 

Can you show any reports about people regretting changes made during COVID? I am always on a lookout for new sources of information but due to my bias (I believe) I always get to see things form the same view point. 

Thanks
Greg 

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9 minutes ago, gmk said:

I agree with the overall sentiment here. I believe the best deals are to be had in the turbulent times. Good fundamentals always help. 

Can you show any reports about people regretting changes made during COVID? I am always on a lookout for new sources of information but due to my bias (I believe) I always get to see things form the same view point. 

Thanks
Greg 

Many sources quoted an Aviva study, relating to the prices buyers paid. Unsurprisingly, animal spirits got the better of many. I'm hopeful that the enormous new garden will provide some degree of consolation for them.

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19 minutes ago, bubble_boy said:

Many sources quoted an Aviva study, relating to the prices buyers paid. Unsurprisingly, animal spirits got the better of many. I'm hopeful that the enormous new garden will provide some degree of consolation for them.

Thank you!

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On 7/26/2021 at 1:26 PM, gmk said:

Ladies and gentlemen, I believe this is on everybody's mind at the moment.  

I am sure there are some seasoned investors that have seen it all before out there (or here). I am not one of them. I was only at the beginning of my employment/career when the last recession hit. It seems to me there are very many factors that are at play at the moment. Each one of them has the potential to seriously shake the market. All of them combined..
I would be quite happy to predict the impact of each one's of them but this mix is rather confusing. I do not even know where to begin.

Inflation? Super inflation? Stagflaction? Depression? Recession? 

And most importantly, how the future will affect the housing market? 

What do we think?

I look forward to seeing your ideas, views, opinions.

Regards
Greg 
 

Like others have said. Modest inflation is good for asset holding especially if you are using leverage due to the debt erosion over time. BTL is resilient and if you look at the trends over the last 10 years more and more people are renting, its also becoming better regulated etc which means the costs are increasing therefore rents are as well. 

I bought my first property when I was 22, in 2006 quite close to the peak, was rocky for a few years however it still rented and the capital growth has been great with more to come. if you had bought 2009, you may be have been 10% better of than me, but the me back then probably couldn't have got a mortgage in 2009 so everything happens for a reason.

Good decisions a year ago will still be good decisions now. I've made two buy and hold purchases in the last 6 months, not below market value , not flips, solid fundamentals that will bring long term capital growth and immediate rental return on my cash giving me a 12% net roi. I've rented one to a direct tenant already and another being marketed with a long list of potential tenants already and that money will be getting invest into bonds until it goes back into property again. 

Always opportunity in a downturn, recession , crash etc, but huge risks as well by staying still and not taking action on your long term plan

The government has backed the housing market and its subsequent supply chain and personally i feel a full crash has some time to arrive yet but thats my personal opinion and aligns with the end of the market and property values I am purchasing 

 

 

 

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On 7/26/2021 at 6:34 PM, bubble_boy said:

 I'm hopeful that the enormous new garden will provide some degree of consolation for them.

I think many people who suddenly wanted a big garden will be moving back to the city as soon as they realise that the garden doesn't stay in pristine condition :)

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On 7/28/2021 at 3:56 PM, julia urquhart said:

I think many people who suddenly wanted a big garden will be moving back to the city as soon as they realise that the garden doesn't stay in pristine condition :)

 

On 7/28/2021 at 2:24 PM, ayns said:

Like others have said. Modest inflation is good for asset holding especially if you are using leverage due to the debt erosion over time. BTL is resilient and if you look at the trends over the last 10 years more and more people are renting, its also becoming better regulated etc which means the costs are increasing therefore rents are as well. 

I bought my first property when I was 22, in 2006 quite close to the peak, was rocky for a few years however it still rented and the capital growth has been great with more to come. if you had bought 2009, you may be have been 10% better of than me, but the me back then probably couldn't have got a mortgage in 2009 so everything happens for a reason.

Good decisions a year ago will still be good decisions now. I've made two buy and hold purchases in the last 6 months, not below market value , not flips, solid fundamentals that will bring long term capital growth and immediate rental return on my cash giving me a 12% net roi. I've rented one to a direct tenant already and another being marketed with a long list of potential tenants already and that money will be getting invest into bonds until it goes back into property again. 

Always opportunity in a downturn, recession , crash etc, but huge risks as well by staying still and not taking action on your long term plan

The government has backed the housing market and its subsequent supply chain and personally i feel a full crash has some time to arrive yet but thats my personal opinion and aligns with the end of the market and property values I am purchasing 

 

 

 

Great to see such a thoughtful response, but unless you are using bond purchases as some kind of sophisticated currency exchange hedge/arbitrage, you may be better off putting it in a shoebox under your mattress.

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On 8/1/2021 at 8:02 PM, bubble_boy said:

 

Great to see such a thoughtful response, but unless you are using bond purchases as some kind of sophisticated currency exchange hedge/arbitrage, you may be better off putting it in a shoebox under your mattress.

sorry stocks not bonds . Investments I've made into my s&s isa this year are already up 12% so seems a better return that stashing it some place else

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1 hour ago, ayns said:

sorry stocks not bonds . Investments I've made into my s&s isa this year are already up 12% so seems a better return that stashing it some place else

Certainly nothing wrong with investing in short duration, investment grade corporate bonds and holding to maturity. Returns are low but it beats putting it under your mattress in a shoebox (and holding to maturity means you won't suffer a loss from an increase in rates - even better if you're in floating rate bonds - and being short duration means if you need to exit early, you're less exposed to changes in rates and hence declines in price). Personally I agree with the strategy of investing in stocks, though every individual has their own risk appetite... 

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