Is the 18 year property cycle a scam?

This 18 year property cycle we’ve been going on about for the last year…is it all just a scam?

That’s what we’re asking this week, in response to a voicemail from a listener who expressed doubts about the veracity of the data and its application. So we dug into:

• Has the 18 year pattern actually held for the last 100 years?
• If it’s true, why do we see falls in prices more frequently than every 18 years?
• Why do we seem to be heading for a dip now, only 7 years after the last crash?
• And, the many-billions-of-pounds question: what’s the deal with London?

The upshot? We wouldn’t bet any number of our houses on the timing being spot on, but you don’t need to buy into the cycle wholeheartedly to receive the benefits. The primary concern of any investor should be surviving a property crash, and that’s where the ideas underpinning this theory can be the difference between make and break.

There’s a lot of detail in this episode, so sit back and have a listen!

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Writing in The Telegraph, Tom Stevenson from Fidelity makes the case for commercial property’s strong run to continue.

Because commercial property (unlike residential) can give such rock-solid returns, he relates the returns to bond yields – and finds the comparison favourable, especially in big cities outside London.

We don’t talk about commercial property much on this podcast, but it clearly has its place – and this article does a good job of putting it into context.