Jump to content

Are Rob and Rob's prediction of a boom starting to come to fruition?


Recommended Posts

I know we spoke about this previously but do you think the 2 Robs predictions are coming to fruition? What is the market like in your area?

In my local area it very much feels like we are on the cusp of a boom. Houses are literally selling above asking price within a matter of days. Historically this only ever happened in boom times. I mean everything seems to be going above asking price or to sealed bids, where historically this hasnt happened for about 15 years. Interestingly enough this also ties in with the 18 year property cycle too.

It's interesting that in the midst of so many redundancies the housing market seems to have gone through exponential growth. I just wondered if the market where you were was doing the same?

Link to post

I've seen a few of properties that I monitor on a tracker that had been sat on the market since Q3/Q4 2019, but are now being re-listed at higher prices. One example is a house that was sold STC earlier this year after being on the market for 4 months, then became available again in the middle of lockdown. It's since re-listed for £20k more than the original listing price back in Q3 2019, most likely trying to catch out unwary buyers during the mini-boom.

Similar to Haf, I'm building up some cash and looking to Q4 2020. Lots of government funding at the moment propping things up, including the furlough scheme which is due to end soon. But if you can find something of value now, then go for it! 

Personal Blog: https://abcdad.co.uk
Property Spreadsheet and Deal Analyser: https://abcdad.co.uk/property-spreadsheet
Looking to read some Property books? https://abcdad.co.uk/books/property-books
Follow on Instagram: @abc.dad

Link to post

Yes properties seem to be selling within weeks or even days of going on the market and certainly not at discounted prices. Speaking to conveyancers they are not seeing deals being renegotiated. 

Of course, many people are still holding their jobs under furlough but in that situation would they realistically be looking to move (they might be lookinging to downsize!) and are lenders lending to people on furlough?

There will have been pent up demand.

The Stamp duty window is oing to have an effect.

I expect demand to drop in April 2021 but will it lead to a big price drop? Demand will have been bought forward in this year, so market activity will be less in 2021, less houses will be on the market and a proportion of those will inevitably be those that need to sell but I suspect for joe bloggs planning a move up the housing ladder, they will get on with it this year.

I dont think there is going to be a massive drop, I think there will be stagnation for a couple of years and the choice of properties available will be less. So if there is something you want for your portfolio and it becomes available this year I would go for it. It might not be available for another couple of years! 

Link to post

Thanks for the question and replies as I have found them reassuring. I too am in the midlands and have actively been trying to find and purchase my next B2L since the start of this year and am finding it very hard!!! Trying to find a suitable property at a fair price for myself as an investor where the numbers stack up and I get a look in before the properties are already sold - near impossible at the moment...

Link to post

It's a pretty resounding consensus then, at the minute the market is going a bit crazy. I guess the stimulus and the pent up demand is ultimately driving this. If the supply is restricted, from what I see there arent as many houses coming to the market, then this is fuelling it even more. Interesting times, certainly different to what I was expecting 4 months ago, I didn't think there would be this much financial govt support across the board.

Link to post

In liverpool it’s much of the same, less supply but to much demand...

I understand the logic in saving cash to see what happens in 6 months but I can’t see there being much chance of any deals in Liverpool because of the demand. Also, from what I have been reading in 6-9 months time we should have or be close to a vaccine....? 
 

Link to post

Yeah I'm of the same thinking. I don't see the demand decreasing in the near future, hence why I think this is just ybr start of the boom phase. I think it could be like this for the next few years, purely because I think the media hype will get behind it and encourage inexperienced landlords and first time buyers to bid beyond the property value.

I also think the lack of houses being built (due to lockdown and builder uncertainty) coupled with more people looking for houses to work from home in, will again fuel more demand and less supply.

It's starting to look like a perfect storm.

Link to post

On the other hand there may well be plenty of supply when there are 3m jobless and the resulting carnage..

Impossible to predict either way so good luck to those going for it now on the assumption of continued rises. I'm finding it difficult to find deals where the numbers stack up so am looking at small commercial conversions instead

Link to post

Agreed. Market is red hot in Bath. I'm looking to secure my first student HMO and they are being snapped up - very quickly. A particular one I wanted to view sold on the first day it was listed - above the asking price. Another one was sold even before it was listed. 

If the right property comes along for the right price I would be happy to purchase it but will walk away if it turns into a bidding war. 

Logically it would make sense for the market to cool off once the government stimulus package runs out. Market confidence is linked to the labour market. I expect supply to be limited if the market starts to head south as most people will opt to hold on to their properties. 

A future price crash might be limited due to restricted demand.   

 

Link to post

My flat in Greater London (South) should be on the market in the next few days - I'll let you know how it goes.

My opinion is that the trends will be very split, geographically speaking, and there may be some surprises.  For example, I would be looking to buy in areas of the country where the economy is heavily reliant on tourism/hospitality over the next 6 months or so - businesses in these industries have had a tough time in the last few months and there are more redundancies to come, therefore more supply, and the desire/need to strike a deal could be good in those areas.  Then the surprising part - domestic tourism will boom in the coming years, so those economies will bounce back providing good capital growth opportunities.

Just one of many theories...let's see what the future holds!  

 

Link to post

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...