The 18 Year Property Cycle

This might just be one of the all-time “must listen” episodes of The Property Podcast.

Why? Because we dive into a model which explains almost everything we’ve been talking about for the last 16 months. Plus, something you can use to drive your own long-term investing decisions.

That model is the 18 year property cycle, developed by economist Fred Harrison based on evidence which he claims goes back over 300 years.

If you’re suspicious of any economists’ theories – especially ones that claim to predict the future using data from the past – you’re entirely right to be. But it might make you less cynical to learn that Harrison warned Gordon Brown about the 2008 crash as early as 1997 – and in 2005, when everything was still looking rosy, he reiterated his prediction.

So in this episode we’re discussing:

  • What is the 18 year cycle?
  • Visualising the cycle
  • Why is this so exciting?

We also get into a lot more detail – including:

  • Put a note in your diary: we say when the cycle predicts that the next crash is coming!
  • The sure signs that we’re in the “winners curse” phase
  • Where in the cycle we are right now
  • What we can predict about London (and why we have to treat it as a different market)
  • How you can use the cycle to guide your long-term property thinking

It’s one of our most important episodes yet, so give it a listen!

In the news this week, the average first-time buyer in London is paying 9 times his or her earnings to get on the ladder…which means that singletons are being priced out completely.

It’s not big news that the London market is crazy – but does it mean that “how much of a deposit do you have saved up?” is now an acceptable first date question?

Join the conversation!

So, we made some bold claims about the 18 year cycle in this episode, but do you join us by buying into it or do you have more reservations?

Is this a model that you would use to guide your own investing behaviour? And are you going to re-think anything in your own plans after listening?

We’d love to know, so join the discussion in The Property Hub!

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